Michael C. Stalker

The third quarter ended strong for US stocks and weak for bonds. As October ends, stocks have given back this year’s gains. Investors are getting a potent reminder of the relationship between risk and return. This quarter’s newsletter describes a substantial risk to investors that is hiding in plain sight: corporations’ intoxication with debt. I […]

The markets treaded water in the first half. Trade war rhetoric, a deceleration in non-US global economic growth and fears of a yield curve inversion1 stalled investor’s enthusiasm despite the robust US economy. Although inflation concerns were in the mix too, the bond and stock markets continued to behave as if inflation will not be

Warning Shot: Stocks, Bonds, Inflation, and Interest Rates The first quarter of 2018 offered some validation of my number one concern (expressed in detail in last year’s Q2 newsletter) along with two emerging issues. These three concerns (in order of importance) roiled the financial markets in the first quarter: Higher Inflation Leading to Higher Interest

Year End Results If MCS clients’ investments were treated as one large portfolio including their cash, on average clients gained 4.28% in 2017, after fees. The range of individual client returns was from 0.90% to 12.73%. For comparison purposes, the S&P 500 Total Return Stock index earned 21.83%, and the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index was

Sequence of Return Risk This quarter’s update introduces the concept of Sequence of Return Risk and how this under-appreciated risk especially relevant in today’s market environment. If MCS clients’ investments were treated as one large portfolio including their cash, on average clients gained on 3.28%1 through September 30, 2017, after fees. The range of individual

If MCS clients’ investments were treated as one large portfolio including their cash, on average clients gained 2.68% so far this year (through June 30, 2017), after fees. The range of individual client returns was from 0.60% to 8.24%. For comparison purposes, the S&P 500 Total Return Stock index earned 9.34%, and the Barclays Aggregate

If MCS clients’ investments were treated as one large portfolio including their cash, on average clients gained 1.67% after fees through March 31, 2017. The range of individual client returns was from 0.03% to 4.94%. For comparison purposes, the S&P 500 Total Return Stock index earned 6.07%, and the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index was up

If MCS clients’ investments were treated as one large portfolio including their cash, on average clients gained 3.47%1 after fees this year through December 31, 2016. The range of individual client returns was from -0.01% to 6.66%. For comparison purposes, the S&P 500 Total Return Stock index earned 11.96%, and the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index

If MCS clients’ investments were treated as one large portfolio including their cash, on average clients gained 4.71% after fees this year through September 30, 2016.

If MCS clients’ investments were treated as one large portfolio including their cash, on average clients gained 3.67% after fees through June 30, 2016. The range of individual client returns was from 0.81% to 6.98%. For comparison purposes, the S&P 500 Total Return Stock index earned 3.84%, and the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index was up