Michael C. Stalker

2020 proved to be a year of challenge. In the space of twelve months, we experienced an impeachment trial, a global pandemic, a deep recession that bifurcated the economy into big winners and big losers, four hundred thousand COVID-19 deaths, and massive protests. The new year began with a riot in the US Capitol over […]

My comments are focused on the next three months. I’ve provided links to articles that expand on my views. There is a lot of near-term uncertainty as you, no doubt, appreciate. In the first quarter of 2020 (if MCS clients’ investments were treated as one large portfolio including their cash), on average clients gained 0.36%1,

The investment strategy I am currently pursuing on your behalf is based on two questions: What is the probable financial outcome given both America’s and the world’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic? How attractive are investment opportunities within that framework? As of June 30, 2020 (if MCS clients’ investments were treated as one large portfolio

COVID-19 and Its Economic Repercussions As you might imagine, I often find myself working late these days (some of you can attest to this because I’m answering your emails at 9pm or later). There is so much to absorb and process. We are putting in long hours to stay ahead of the pandemic’s operational and

2019 Year End Newsletter and Outlook Despite a trade war and recession fears, 2019 was a blowout year for risk taking. Long-term bonds and stocks posted significant gains as the Fed reduced interest rates to abate recession fears. In 2019 (if MCS clients’ investments were treated as one large portfolio including their cash), on average

The Implications of an Ultra-low Yield World This quarter’s newsletter addresses two issues; large cash balances in client accounts and the challenges investors face in an ultra-low interest rate world. Before discussing what lies ahead, here’s a quick a review of 2019 performance. In the first nine months of 2019 (if MCS clients’ investments were

The first half of 2019 was a drama involving the bond market anticipating a recession and the stock market assuming that the Fed would ride to the rescue by pushing interest rates lower. The Fed indicated a rate cut would be prudent to ensure continued economic growth; stocks continued to rally while bond holders remained

Investors are on edge. One good quarter does not a year’s performance make. I interpret the recent market volatility as evidence that we are in the late stage of the economic recovery and bull market. This quarter’s newsletter will follow up briefly on my China comments in the last newsletter, review the market volatility of

2018 placed MCS clients, measured as one large portfolio, in the top return categories among asset classes. This is no small feat. Until the fourth quarter, most investors were enjoying the gains of a ‘risk-on’ mode while stocks made new highs. December serves as a reminder of how quickly gains can be reversed and that