Michael C. Stalker

2018 Third Quarter Newsletter & Outlook

The third quarter ended strong for US stocks and weak for bonds. As October ends, stocks have given back this year’s gains. Investors are getting a potent reminder of the relationship between risk and return. This quarter’s newsletter describes a substantial risk to investors that is hiding in plain sight: corporations’ intoxication with debt. I …

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2018 First Quarter Newsletter & Outlook

Warning Shot: Stocks, Bonds, Inflation, and Interest Rates The first quarter of 2018 offered some validation of my number one concern (expressed in detail in last year’s Q2 newsletter) along with two emerging issues. These three concerns (in order of importance) roiled the financial markets in the first quarter: Higher Inflation Leading to Higher Interest …

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2017 Third Quarter Newsletter

Sequence of Return Risk This quarter’s update introduces the concept of Sequence of Return Risk and how this under-appreciated risk especially relevant in today’s market environment. If MCS clients’ investments were treated as one large portfolio including their cash, on average clients gained on 3.28%1 through September 30, 2017, after fees. The range of individual …

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2016 Third Quarter Report1

If MCS clients’ investments were treated as one large portfolio including their cash, on average clients gained 4.71% after fees this year through September 30, 2016.

2016 Second Quarter Report1 – Global Interest Rate Mania

If MCS clients’ investments were treated as one large portfolio including their cash, on average clients gained 3.67% after fees through June 30, 2016. The range of individual client returns was from 0.81% to 6.98%. For comparison purposes, the S&P 500 Total Return Stock index earned 3.84%, and the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index was up …

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