As Spring peeks over the horizon and the days continue to lengthen, this seems a good opportunity to shed some light on the economic outlook for the next year, and on appropriate investment strategies based on that assessment. Looking ahead is not an idle exercise. It’s the only way to base an investment strategy. Yet, […]
Michael Message-Outlook for 2007 Read More »
It’s over, finished, gone, and I’m not talking about the Thanksgiving Turkey. I am talking about the seismic shift in the real estate market. What’s over and done with is the growth during the past four years that saw home prices ascend the way Lance Armstrong assaulted an Alpine peak. Now the market has cooled,
Selling Your Home in a Down Market Read More »
In my September, 2002 newsletter, I suggested that the stock market bubble was transferring into real estate. Today, you can’t pick up a financial publication without seeing a reference to the real estate “bubble” both in the U.S. and abroad Market Bubbles What is a bubble? The term bubble is used to describe a financial
Residential Housing & the Economy Read More »
While academics and investment professionals define risk as “fluctuation” or “volatility,” most people see risk as the possibility of incurring a loss. An investor who experiences a dramatic increase in the value of a stock, for example, may not see it as risky or volatile. Instead, the rise is interpreted as a confirmation of a
Recently, I saw a 79-year old chart that proved stock returns are vastly superior to bonds. Should I forget bonds and just concentrate on stocks? No – The chart is both historically accurate and highly misleading. Investors are often statistically seduced by such historical “proof” because they fail to understand the context in which the
Stock Returns Superior to Bonds Read More »
Portfolio Stress testing is an approach that looks at the risks and potential losses an investor faces. The process is both a science and an art. The science is in knowing how various investments have historically behaved. The art is in interpreting historical data and applying it to the current situation. A good stress test
Portfolio Stress Testing Read More »
A truly diversified portfolio contains securities that zig when other securities zag. That means owning stocks, bonds, or mutual funds that do not react in the same way to a given economic environment. For example, many investors make the mistake of buying a portfolio of recently top performing funds. What they can wind up with
True Diversification Read More »
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